How Touching grass Might Affect the Stock Market! Intro to Complex Adaptive Systems.

The world is a complex net of cause and effect that interacts in the most unpredictable ways that we are trying to predict.

You might be wondering what do I mean by all this. And you might also be wondering how the hell touching grass will affect the stock market? Stick with me, because we’re about to dive into the mind blowing world of complex adaptive systems (CAS), and I promise it’ll make your brain do flips like in interstellar.

Before we get to the grass thing, let’s kick it off with a backstory of someone you definitely know. It’s a perfect example of how little dots in life connect to make something huge.

Steve Jobs: Connecting the Dots

Steve Jobs, the visionary behind Apple, often spoke about the importance of "connecting the dots" in life. One critical dot in his own life was his adoption. His biological mother, an unwed graduate student, was determined that he be adopted by college graduates. However, the initial adoptive parents changed their minds, and Jobs ended up being raised by a working-class couple who, despite not having college degrees themselves, promised to send him to college.  

This seemingly small twist of fate being raised by a different family had a profound impact on Jobs's life. He attended Reed College, but high cost of tuition led him to drop out after six months. However, he continued auditing classes that piqued his interest, including a calligraphy course. Jobs later credited this seemingly insignificant class with influencing the Mac's multiple typefaces and proportionally spaced fonts, stating that if he had never dropped in on that single course, personal computers would not have the wonderful typography they do today.  

Luckily, I heard this speech when I was young. I never really understood what Jobs was saying at the time. His speech is the inspiration for this blog. If I had not listened to the speech years ago, I could not have written this blog post.

Ant Colonies: Collective Genius

Now, let’s shrink down to something tinier but just an ant. By itself? Not exactly a Brainiac. Yet, when thousands of ants form a colony, something remarkable emerges. Without a leader or plan, they construct elaborate networks of tunnels, bridges, and even “farms” for growing fungi. Each ant adheres to simple rules, but collectively, they produce a system far more sophisticated than any single ant could manage.

This is a hallmark of a complex adaptive system. A CAS involves numerous interacting elements whether ants, people, or other agents—that adapt and organize themselves, resulting in emergent behaviour. The colony transcends its individual parts, becoming a dynamic system that evolves with its surroundings.

Touching Grass and the Stock Market: Wait, What?

Alright, back to the big question: “If I touch grass, will it affect the stock market?” Maybe. Hear me out this is where it gets trippy.

Picture yourself outdoors, brushing a blade of grass. This small action could subtly alter the moisture on that blade. Super small, right?.

• That tiny shift might influence the surrounding air, potentially affecting local weather patterns over time.

• Tiny moisture change causes slightly different evaporation.  

• Slightly different evaporation causes a whisper of change in local air currents. A breeze might potentially affect a rain cloud... later, in another location. Location of rain clouds affects where rain falls, resulting in a very small impact on crop growth in certain areas.

• Even minor changes in crop growth can potentially cause a slight ripple in commodity markets, which may lead to a subtle impact on a food company's projected earnings.

• Company earnings whisper = MIGHT slightly influence stock price, perhaps by a tiny fraction of a paisa, amidst numerous other factors.

Complex adaptive systems ( CAS ) surround us. Steve Jobs’ life shows how random moments can align to spark a technological revolution. Ant colonies reveal how simple components, following basic rules, can yield sophisticated outcomes. The stock market itself is a CAS, where countless trades, news events, and individual choices interact to shape prices in ways no one can fully anticipate.

The next time you touch a blade of grass, pause to consider : you might be initiating a chain reaction. It’s unlikely to disrupt the stock market, but within the vast network of interconnected systems, the possibility exists. By existing in this world, you can change the world, and we can only connect the dots looking forward.